The centrifugal trend of CIS member countries is increasing.

　　Russia’s "back garden" is falling apart.

　　On the 18th, the annual "President’s Cup" horse race held at Moscow Central Racecourse attracted the attention of Russian and foreign media. On the surface, the "President’s Cup" between 11 countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is only a sports event, but in fact it is an important summit gathering for Russia to promote the integration process of CIS.

　　The media invariably noticed the "low attendance" of this year’s events-except Russia, only the heads of five CIS countries appeared at the Moscow Central Racecourse. The headline "Half the Heads of CIS Countries Absent from Marseille" in Moscow Times revealed Russia’s embarrassment, and foreign news agencies even interpreted the information behind the "low attendance rate" with the title "Russia loses control of CIS countries", saying that more and more CIS countries are leaving Moscow. (Wen Junhua)

　　In August 2008, a five-day war broke out between Russia and Georgia, a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States, and Georgia subsequently announced its withdrawal from the Commonwealth of Independent States. The picture shows Russian tanks entering Georgia.

Medvedev lost face when the presidents of five CIS member countries were absent from the Presidential Cup horse race.

The tank driven by Putin has a cannon at the front and an oil pipeline at the back.

　　On the 18th, the presidents of six CIS countries, namely Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Tajikistan, attended the horse race.

Georgian girls holding national flags protest against Russian invasion.

The US military continues to lease the manas base in Kyrgyzstan and maintain its military presence in Central Asia.

　　Background link

　　These 18 years of CIS

　　The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) is a regional organization composed of several republics when the former Soviet Union disintegrated. On December 8, 1991, leaders of three former Soviet republics, Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, signed the Commonwealth of Independent States Agreement in Belarus, announcing the formation of the Commonwealth of Independent States. On the 21st of the same month, except the Baltic countries and Georgia, the other 11 republics of the former Soviet Union signed the Almaty Declaration and the Protocol on Armed Forces, declaring the establishment of the Commonwealth of Independent States and the cessation of the former Soviet Union.

　　The CIS is headquartered in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, and its working language is Russian. At present, it has 11 members, namely Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Russia, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Georgia joined the CIS in December 1993 and announced its withdrawal in August 2008.

　　The main institutions of CIS include the Council of Heads of State, the Council of Heads of Government, the Transnational Parliamentary Assembly, and the Coordination and Consultation Committee. The Council of Heads of State is the highest body of the Commonwealth of Independent States and usually meets twice a year. The Council of Heads of Government meets four times a year. The meeting was held alternately in the capitals of various countries.

　　The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has always been an important platform for discussing various issues in the former Soviet Union. Russia regards CIS countries as its own interests and "back garden", and developing relations with CIS member States is the top priority of Russian foreign policy. From Putin’s first trip abroad after taking office as prime minister to Belarus, to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Kazakhstan as the first stop abroad, Russia attaches importance to the CIS.

　　Presidential cup horse race

　　The presidents of the five countries don’t like it.

　　There are various reasons for absence.

　　On the 18th, the presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Moldova and Tajikistan attended the horse race, while the leaders of the other five countries-Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine and Turkmenistan-were absent.

　　Kyrgyz President Bakiyev’s absence is the most justified reason-he has to prepare for the presidential election on the 23rd of this month, and other reasons are "various": Turkmenistan President Berdymukhamedov said that one of his close relatives was ill; Ukrainian President Yushchenko is going to the deep forest to attend a traditional religious prayer ceremony; Belarusian President Lukashenko thinks that the racecourse is not an occasion to talk about things (later, the media found out that he attended a local motorcycle race that day and personally rode on Harley); Uzbek President Karimov simply didn’t even bother to say the reason.

　　After the summit of the racecourse, Russia revealed through the media that Russia and Kazakhstan have reached a customs union agreement, and other member countries also intend to participate, but did not disclose which countries are "some member countries".

　　In addition, under the coordination of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan held "constructive" talks on the long-standing territorial dispute-the ownership of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, but the subsequent statements issued by the two countries did not show a substantive breakthrough.

　　CIS Security Summit

　　"Attendance" reflects vitality

　　The Commonwealth of Independent States is in a state of disintegration.

　　In fact, the "absence storm" of the "Presidential Cup" horse race is not a case in the internal meetings and activities of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Not long ago in June, Belarusian President Lukashenko missed the CIS security summit in Moscow for no reason, which caused strong dissatisfaction from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

　　In December last year, the informal meeting of heads of state of CIS member countries held in Kazakhstan was even colder. Apart from the "leader" Russia and the host Kazakhstan, only the presidents of Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan attended, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan had no choice but to change the reference to "informal meeting of heads of state of CIS" to "informal meeting of heads of state of five countries of Ahaijota".

　　The "attendance rate" of CIS activities reflects the rise and fall of this organization to some extent. In the year after the establishment of the Commonwealth of Independent States, 11 founding countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States joined forces to participate in the 1992 Barcelona Olympic Games in the name of the Commonwealth of Independent States. In those years, some international sports events were also participated in the name of the Commonwealth of Independent States. Unfortunately, similar grand scenery has long been a memory.

　　By the end of 2001, the CIS had held 29 meetings of heads of state and signed thousands of documents, but few of them were actually implemented, and the CIS was in a state of disintegration. In 2001, Russian President Vladimir Putin took advantage of his chairmanship of the Council of Heads of State of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the establishment of CIS to convene three meetings of heads of state of member countries, and reached a consensus with the heads of state on two key issues: the CIS should continue to exist and carry out fundamental reforms, thus alleviating the crisis of CIS’s existence.

　　However, Russian political analysts do not agree with the statement that Russia’s "back garden" is difficult to protect. Vladimir Zarikin, deputy director of the CIS Institute in Moscow, said that the "low attendance rate" in horse racing did not mean that the CIS would be further divided.

　　Expert connection

　　Liu Fenghua, an associate researcher at the Russian Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the China Academy of Social Sciences, believes that:

　　The Commonwealth of Independent States still needs to exist.

　　Are CIS countries "far away from Russia" as interpreted by foreign media, and what are the prospects for the existence of CIS? On the above issues, the reporter interviewed Liu Fenghua, associate researcher of Russian Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia of China Academy of Social Sciences.

　　Liu Fenghua believes that as a regional dialogue platform, the existence of the CIS is necessary for Russia and other CIS countries, and the CIS will not be greatly affected by Georgia’s withdrawal.

　　Liu Fenghua pointed out that the relationship between Russia and other CIS countries is complex and cannot be generalized. As far as relations with Russia are concerned, the CIS can be divided into three groups: pro-Russian, anti-Russian and neutral. Among them, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia are regarded as pro-Russian, Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova are regarded as anti-Russian, and other countries are generally neutral.

　　Ukraine’s next exit?

　　Pro-Russian Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Russia have close political, military, cultural and economic ties, and have close multilateral and bilateral military security cooperation and economic cooperation with Russia, while anti-Russian and neutral parties focus on bilateral economic cooperation and cultural ties with Russia.

　　Even Georgia, which has left the CIS, still maintains close economic relations with Russia. The remittance sent back by Georgian migrant workers in Russia alone is a national income that cannot be ignored for Georgia.

　　The contradiction between Belarus and Russia in recent years has mainly focused on natural gas prices and transit transportation fees, but it will not affect the overall political relations between the two countries. Among the 11 CIS countries today, Ukraine and Russia have the biggest differences. Ukraine is dissatisfied with Russia’s involvement in the country’s political development, while Russia strongly opposes Ukraine’s accession to NATO.

　　In addition, according to the 1997 Russia-Ukraine agreement, the Russian Black Sea Fleet must leave the port of Sevastopol in Ukraine before May 2017. Russia hopes to extend the lease period, but Ukraine, which is eager to join NATO, has repeatedly said that it will not extend the lease period, but will greatly increase the annual rent.

　　In addition, Moldova has some friction with Russia in wine export. There are relatively few conflicts between the remaining CIS countries and Russia. The main challenge of "centrists" such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan is to seek a balance between developing relations with the United States and western countries and maintaining relations with Russia.

　　development prospect

　　Although the influence of CIS is weakened, it does not affect the existence of this organization.

　　Russia should develop a "small but refined" CIS.

　　Regarding the prospect of the CIS, Liu Fenghua believes that apart from the Russian side, it is certain to maintain and continue to consolidate the existence of the CIS, other CIS countries also need a regional platform such as the CIS to realize dialogue and settlement of regional issues.

　　Today, Russia has also changed the CIS development strategy of "comprehensive integration" during Yeltsin’s period, focusing on the realization of military security integration under the Collective Security Treaty Organization and economic integration under the Eurasian Economic Community, that is, to develop a "small but refined" CIS.

　　Liu Fenghua pointed out that although the influence of the Commonwealth of Independent States is weakened, it does not affect the existence of this organization. In fact, Russia’s influence in Central Asia such as Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan has been strengthened rather than weakened in recent years.

　　internal friction

　　The best buddies are still "throbbing"

　　In addition to the infiltration of the west, the social and economic diversification and autonomous development of CIS countries have also caused more and more frictions with Russia.

　　Since the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, the relationship between Russia and Belarus has been the closest in the CIS, but the two countries can’t escape the contradiction of "quarrelling". Belarus is an important natural gas user of Russia in the former Soviet Union, but the price it has paid to Russia for a long time is only 40% of that of European customers-in 2006, the price of natural gas supplied by Russia to Belarus was only 46.68 US dollars per thousand cubic meters. Due to political and economic considerations, Russia began to gradually cancel its energy subsidies to Belarus, demanding that Belarus buy gas at market prices as retaliation, while Belarus raised the transit fee for Russian natural gas exported to Europe through pipelines in the two countries. In June this year, Russia banned the import of about 500 kinds of milk and dairy products produced in Belarus on the grounds that "the products did not meet the new Russian hygiene standards and product labeling regulations", and a "milk war" almost broke out between the two countries.

　　The "grudge" contradiction between Russia and Ukraine is more intense, and it once developed to "dead"-Russia stopped supplying gas to Ukraine. After that, Ukraine and Russia repeatedly became angry over the issue of transporting natural gas to European Union countries.

　　Uzbekistan accused the Russian-backed hydropower projects in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan of threatening Uzbekistan’s domestic water supply. Turkmenistan, on the other hand, completely stopped sending natural gas to Russia after the explosion of the "Central Asia-Center" natural gas pipeline in April this year, and accused its Russian counterparts of creating this commercial sabotage.

　　Western factors

　　The infiltration of the west into Russia’s back garden has never stopped.

　　Since NATO’s eastward expansion in the 1990s, the United States and the West have been striving to enter the traditional sphere of influence in Russia. As early as 1996, Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova formed "GUAM" group (transliteration of GUAM) within the framework of the Commonwealth of Independent States on the grounds of "strengthening political and economic exchanges and promoting regional security". The United States not only gives political support to "GUAM", but also provides huge financial assistance in economy. The members of "GUAM" pursue the position of "pro-Western and pro-Russian".

　　The success of Georgia’s "Rose Revolution" in 2003 and Ukraine’s "Orange Revolution" in 2004, when the pro-Western regimes of the two countries came to power, was also regarded as the staged victory of the United States and the West in marching into Russia’s "back garden". In recent years, Georgia and Ukraine have repeatedly asked to join NATO. In August 2008, after the armed conflict between Russia and Georgia, Georgia withdrew from the CIS, and Ukraine once said that it would consider withdrawing.

　　Out of concern for Russia, NATO is more cautious in accepting Georgia and Ukraine. However, the EU’s "Eastern Partnership" plan with Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia and Azerbaijan has been launched. Under this plan, the EU will establish free trade zones with the six countries one by one, simplify visa procedures for its citizens to enter the EU, and strengthen cooperation in energy and security. Russia reacted violently, accusing the EU of creating "new cracks".

　　At the same time, the United States constantly seeks military presence in CIS countries. At the beginning of this year, after a series of agreements were reached between Kyrgyzstan and Russia, Kyrgyzstan once announced the closure of the US military base in manas, the capital of the country. However, after the United States agreed to pay a series of compensation, the manas base was renamed as a "transshipment center" and continued to perform the function of transporting materials to Afghanistan. (Reporter Wen Junhua) (Source: Guangzhou Daily)

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